Silverlight's Fate

While Microsoft is busy churning out the newer versions of Silverlight and we are all learning to cope with plurality and continunal changes in the RIA world, Computer World has decided to be the soothsayer. They recently (i.e. yesterday on May 1) published an article titled -- 6 factors that will decide the fate of Silverlight . The analysis is interesting but the title seems a bit audacious! Considering most reasons in that article one way or other compare Silverlight to Flash and its popularity, it could have been more appropriately titled as "Can Silverlight be the Flash Killer?".

The questions I would like to ask are:

• How many developers on the Microsoft platform are actively developing on Flash technologies?
• Does the presence of the flash player everywhere imply that Microsoft can't get into your desktop?
• Have a majority of enterprises who spend the big money and make or break a technology chosen Flex/Flash as their RIA platform?
• What about AJAX and JavaFX? I know they have a lot of problems but is that going to stop people from using it and will they not grow up one day?

I think the Adobe Flex technology and the Flash platform are extremely compelling and provide an excellent option for RIA developers, Microsoft Silverlight is still new, JavaFX is something few people other than some in Sun truly understand and JavaScript is somethig everyone hates, even if they don't know how to program in that language, but I would still not want to list out a bunch of factors that would decide any of these technologies' fate :) Would you?